South Carolina Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office

The board reviewed revenue forecasts for FY 2025-26 and FY 2026-27, noting that revenue collections were slightly below expectations for the month of January. The discussion highlighted a disconnect between economic activity and revenue collections, with specific concerns regarding weaker than anticipated holiday sales affecting sales tax and corporate income tax. Staff reported on personal income and employment data for South Carolina, and the board ultimately decided to maintain existing revenue estimates without changes, with plans to revisit forecasts following the tax filing season.

The meeting agenda includes discussions on General Fund revenue and economic updates for the 2025-26 fiscal year, a forecast review for both 2025-26 and 2026-27, and reports from various working group members including the Governor's Office, Senate Finance Committee, Ways & Means Committee, Treasurer's Office, Comptroller General's Office, and the Executive Budget Office.

The meeting covered several operational updates and trend analyses. Discussions included updates on the County Boundary Program, noting that 18 of 46 counties are complete, with upcoming meetings scheduled. The Beach Erosion Research and Monitoring (BERM) project update confirmed the project is in Year 2 (2026) of a five-year schedule, detailing monument replacement progress, particularly at Edisto and Seabrook sites, and noting the creation of an interactive OCRM Monument Dashboard. Updates were provided on the Real Time Network (RTN), which has seen a 47% increase in user accounts, resulting in reduced fees for customers. The South Carolina Geographic Information Council (SCGIC) membership has increased to 16, and aerial imagery capture is 61% complete. Updates from the US Census Bureau highlighted South Carolina as a single response state for various data submittals essential for the 2030 Decennial Census. A significant portion of the meeting involved an overview of the Employer Contribution Trend Analysis, detailing projections for health, dental, and retirement contributions, including the impact of Act 13 of 2017, and showing contribution rates based on various pay grades.

The meeting focused on the quarterly review and forecast considerations based on results for the quarter ending December 2025. Discussions included adjustments made to Individual Income tax data due to an offsetting error discovered in SCEIS reports. Quarterly revenue collections were noted to be 1.5 percent above expectations for the second quarter of the fiscal year, although the overall revenue growth rate is declining as anticipated. Economic indicators showed South Carolina employment growth at 1.8 percent through November. Detailed tax discussions covered Withholdings, Non-withholdings, Sales Tax, Corporate Income Tax, and Insurance and Bank tax revenues. Key findings included that while Withholdings are ahead of the forecast, growth is expected to slow. Corporate License tax revenue remains behind the November estimate year-to-date. The Board concluded that current data does not strongly warrant a change to the forecast ahead of the February meeting.

The meeting commenced shortly after the Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Board meeting adjourned. The primary discussion item was a personnel matter concerning the reappointment of the Executive Director for a four-year term, pursuant to §11-9-840. Following a motion and second, the reappointment was approved unanimously by the members present. No other items were brought forward for discussion.